2024-03-29T00:16:32Zhttp://tesionline.unicatt.it/dspace-oai/request
oai:tesionline.unicatt.it:10280/2272010-06-09T09:17:29Zhdl_10280_68hdl_10280_36
DocTA - Doctoral Theses Archive
advisorMISSAGLIA, MARCO
advisorCHIAPPERO-MARTINETTI, ENRICA
eng
2008-04-07
2008-10-13T16:33:10Z
This thesis wants to give an assessment and a detailed description of how Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation models can be linked together, taking inspiration from the current literature, with a special focus concerning the literature on developing countries. The main reason why these models are linked together is that the modeller wants to be able to take into account full agents' heterogeneity and the complexity of income distribution, and at the same time to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the policy reforms.
In the last chapter, we build a CGE-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua. This model appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central American countries with USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income and on poverty. With such a model we will study the possible changes in the distribution of income in Nicaragua deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.
authorCOLOMBO, GIULIA
editorBAUSSOLA, MAURIZIO LUIGI
LINKING CGE AND MICROSIMULATION MODELS: METHODOLOGICAL AND APPLIED ISSUES
2008-10-13T16:33:10Z
Questa tesi offre una descrizione dettagliata di come i modelli di equilibrio generale computazionale (CGE) ed i modelli di microsimulazione possano essere utilizzati congiuntamente, partendo dalla letteratura piú recente sull'argomento, e focalizzando l'attenzione in particolare sulla letteratura riguardante i paesi in via di sviluppo.
La ragione principale per la quale questi modelli vengono utilizzati congiuntamente risiede nel fatto che il ricercatore vuole essere in grado di studiare contemporaneamente l'eterogeneità degli agenti economici e la complessità della distribuzione del reddito, ed allo stesso tempo di valutare gli effetti macroeconomici delle riforme.
Nell'ultimo capitolo costruiamo un modello CGE-microsimulazione per l'economia del Nicaragua. Esso si rivela particolarmente adatto alla riforma di politica economica che vogliamo simulare: l'accordo di libero scambio commerciale tra i paesi dell'America Centrale e gli Stati Uniti è infatti una riforma di tipo macroeconomico, la quale potrebbe tuttavia avere effetti significativi sulla distribuzione del reddito. Con questo modello analizzeremo quindi gli effetti dell'accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sulla distribuzione del reddito in Nicaragua. I risultati dell'analisi registrano soltanto piccole variazioni sia nelle principali variabili macroeconomiche che nella distribuzione del reddito e negli indici di povertà.
Colombo, Giulia. "LINKING CGE AND MICROSIMULATION MODELS: METHODOLOGICAL AND APPLIED ISSUES", Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, XIX ciclo, a.a. 2006/07, Piacenza, [http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227].
Adobe PDF
http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227
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Previous issue date: 2008-04-07
oai:tesionline.unicatt.it:10280/2282013-06-04T09:57:27Zhdl_10280_68hdl_10280_36
DocTA - Doctoral Theses Archive
advisorTARGETTI LENTI, RENATA
advisorTIMPANO, FRANCESCO
eng
2008-05-08
2008-10-13T16:33:11Z
The aim of this work is to investigate the socio-economic factors that affect in income distribution changes caused by changes in the policy framework in Vietnam during the period of reforms. The adopted methodology analyzes policy induced changes in income distribution both at the micro and the macro level. At the micro level, the analysis of inequality can help identifying the socio-economic factors affecting the level of household expenditure and its distribution and evaluating direct effects of policies. The macro level identifies the structural characteristics of inequality and evaluates also the indirect effects of policies on the personal income distribution. The two analytical tools have been selected have been a supply driven model represented by the microsimulation model and a demand driven model, constituted by the Social Accounting Matrix. The microsimulation model allowed deriving a counterfactual distribution of income and disaggregating change in the Vietnamese income inequality into four effects: price effect, effect of a change in the unobservable component of wages, occupational choice effect and population effect. Using a new technique of decomposition of SAM-based multipliers in 'microscopic' detail, the macro model allowed deriving all the direct and indirect effects of an exogenous shock to personal income distribution.
authorPANSINI, ROSARIA VEGA
editorBAUSSOLA, MAURIZIO LUIGI
The Impact of Policies on Income Distribution in a Micro-Macro Perspective: the Case of Vietnam
2008-10-13T16:33:11Z
Obiettivo di questo lavoro è studiare i fattori socio-economici responsabili del cambiamento nella distribuzione del reddito dovuto a un cambiamento nel contesto politico di riferimento, in Vietnam durante il periodo delle riforme. La metodologia adottata analizza i cambiamenti nella distribuzione del reddito sia a livello micro che a livello macro. A livello micro, l'analisi indaga sulle caratteristiche individuali e familiari da cui dipende il livello e la distribuzione della spesa. E' possibile inoltre valutare gli effetti diretti di cambiamenti nel quadro politico di riferimento. Il livello macro di analisi consente di individuare le caratteristiche strutturali della disuguaglianza nella distribuzione del reddito personale e di isolare anche gli effetti indiretti delle politiche. Gli strumenti analitici selezionati in questo studio sono un modello supply-driven, rappresentato da un modello di microsimulazione e un modello demand-driven, costituito dalla Matrice di Contabilità Sociale. In particolare, il modello di microsimulazione ha consentito la derivazione di una distribuzione controfattuale e la disaggregazione della variazione della disuguaglianza in Vietnam in: effetto di prezzo, effetto di una variazione della componente non osservata dei salari, effetto dovuto a cambiamenti nelle scelte occupazioni e effetti dovuti a cambiamenti nella popolazione. Utilizzando una nuova metodologia di scomposizione ad un livello microscopico dei moltiplicatori derivati dalla SAM, è stato possibile derivare e isolare tutti gli effetti diretti e indiretti di uno shock esogeno sulla distribuzione personale del reddito.
Pansini, Rosaria Vega. "The Impact of Policies on Income Distribution in a Micro-Macro Perspective: the Case of Vietnam", Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, XIX ciclo, a.a. 2006/07, Piacenza, [http://hdl.handle.net/10280/228].
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Previous issue date: 2008-05-08
oai:tesionline.unicatt.it:10280/2302010-06-09T09:17:30Zhdl_10280_68hdl_10280_36
DocTA - Doctoral Theses Archive
advisorMARINO, DOMENICO
eng
2008-05-23
2008-10-13T16:33:14Z
Regions (territories hosting integrated communities of citizens, firms, and institutions) have become key actors within the International economy, yet conventional economics cannot provide a model to explain local dynamics and to support policy-making. Such limit is due to complexity characterizing regional economies. Therefore, the present research aims at assessing complexity in regions and verifying the possibility of modelling regional economies. to assess regional economies, The research takes into account heterogeneity of agents as well as exogenous shocks. Moreover the research focuses on the effect of complexity on policy-making. Because of complexity, to be effective, regional policy has to take into account local and external shocks. Such theoretical background is partly used to assess the metropolitan region of Madrid. The empirical analysis shows that even a successful region can be challenged by the sustainability of economic growth. To enhance its international competitiveness, the region has to improve the use of local factors of production and to increase its specialization in sectors that are traded on the international market. An excessive specialization in non-tradable goods may, in fact, challenge growth sustainability.
authorTRAPASSO, RAFFAELE
editorBAUSSOLA, MAURIZIO LUIGI
Complexity in Regional Economics. Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Applications
2008-10-13T16:33:14Z
Sebbene le regioni (territori che ospitano comunità integrate di abitanti, attività economiche ed istituzioni) siano diventati attori fondamentali dell'economia internazionale, le scienze economiche non sono ancora in grado di fornire un modello capace di interpretare le dinamiche economiche e fornire supporto alle politiche. Il motivo di questo limite è che gli approcci tradizionali non riescono a modellizare la complessità che caratterizza le economie regionali. Il progetto di ricerca si è dunque posto l'obiettivo di discutere tale complessità e verificare la possibilità di fornire un controfattuale. L'analisi ha tenuto in conto l'eterogeneità degli agenti e l'effetto di shock esogeni. Inoltre si è discusso come, a causa della complessità, i policy-makers siano confrontati alla difficoltà di predisporre politiche capaci di anticipare gli shock endogeni ed esogeni. I risultati teorici sono stati utilizzati, in parte, per analizzare la regione metropolitana di Madrid. In particolare si è analizzata la capacità locale di riprodurre una dinamica di crescita. I risultati indicano che anche regioni che attraversano cicli positivi hanno la necessità di ottimizzare l'utilizzo dei fattori di produzione e specializzare la propria economia in settori sostenuti dalla domanda internazionale. Una eccessiva specializzazione in settori non-tradable può, infatti, mettere in discussione la sostenibilità della crescita.
Trapasso, Raffaele. "Complexity in Regional Economics. Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Applications", Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, XIX ciclo, a.a. 2006/07, Piacenza, [http://hdl.handle.net/10280/230].
http://hdl.handle.net/10280/230
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Previous issue date: 2008-05-23
oai:tesionline.unicatt.it:10280/2312013-06-04T09:57:27Zhdl_10280_68hdl_10280_36
DocTA - Doctoral Theses Archive
advisorBAUSSOLA, MAURIZIO LUIGI
advisorFALIVA, MARIO
eng
2008-05-23
2008-10-13T16:33:15Z
The starting point of this thesis is the remark that recent decades have been characterized by a rising complexity in the economic and political context both at the national and international level. This is due both to the European economic and monetary integration process and to the regional decentralisation process. With the aim of providing a useful tool of analysis for the decision-maker,. a 'global' regional model for the Italian labour market has been constructed on the basis of annual data from ISTAT-SVIMEZ over the 1970-2003 period. This model could be viewed as an extension to a multi-regional framework of the previous one-region model developed by Baussola (2003). The model shows good performance not only in representing regional labour market specificities, but also in reproducing national variable values. It is also robust and effective in a time-series context.
authorBARBIERI, LAURA
editorBAUSSOLA, MAURIZIO LUIGI
A "Global" Regional Econometric Model in the Italian Labour Market
2008-10-13T16:33:15Z
Partendo dalla constatazione della sempre maggiore complessità del contesto economico e sociale nazionale ed internazionale, imputabile da un lato al processo di integrazione economico e monetario europeo, e dall'altro alla progressiva decentralizzazione dei poteri a livello regionale, la tesi intende proporsi come uno strumento analitico di supporto al decisore. A tal fine, in base a dati annui di fonte ISTAT-SVIMEZ per il periodo 1970-2003, viene sviluppato un modello econometrico regionale 'globale' per il mercato del lavoro italiano, estendendo un precedente modello mono-regionale proposto da Baussola (2003), ad un contesto pluri-regionale. Il modello conduce non solo a rappresentare soddisfacentemente i mercati regionali italiani, ma opera altresì efficacemente nel ricostruire i valori delle variabili a livello nazionale. Il modello si conferma robusto ed efficace nel rappresentare le realtà regionali, anche nell'ottica di analisi propria dell'econometria delle serie storiche.
Barbieri, Laura. "A "Global" Regional Econometric Model in the Italian Labour Market", Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, XIX ciclo, a.a. 2006/07, Piacenza, [http://hdl.handle.net/10280/231].
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Previous issue date: 2008-05-23
oai:tesionline.unicatt.it:10280/2772013-06-04T09:57:22Zhdl_10280_36hdl_10280_68
DocTA - Doctoral Theses Archive
advisorCHIAPPERO MARTINETTI, ENRICA
ITA
2008-05-08
2008-10-13T16:36:07Z
This thesis aims at investigating the different possibilities of measuring indicators of socio-economic status at the household's level. These indicators should be able to take account of the dimensions of uncertainty and risk, thus catching the ability of people of coping with negative economic shocks. The construction of such indicators asset-based is focused on the Albanian context.
authorCANOVA, LUCIANO
editorBAUSSOLA, MAURIZIO LUIGI
Asset ownership as a framework to produce measures of wealth vulnerability resistant: the case of Albania
2008-10-13T16:36:07Z
Questa tesi studia la possibilità di costruire diversi indicatori di benessere socio-economico della famiglia, indicatori che possano tenere conto delle dimensioni del rischio e dell'incertezza. Indicatori che, in qualche modo, catturino la capacità di far fronte ad un eventuale shock negativo. La costruzione di indicatori basati sulla proprietà di beni durevoli è applicata al contesto albanese.
Canova, Luciano. "Asset ownership as a framework to produce measures of wealth vulnerability resistant: the case of Albania", Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, XX ciclo, a.a. 2006/07, Piacenza, [http://hdl.handle.net/10280/277].
http://hdl.handle.net/10280/277
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Previous issue date: 2008-05-08
oai:tesionline.unicatt.it:10280/6242013-06-04T09:57:38Zhdl_10280_36hdl_10280_68
DocTA - Doctoral Theses Archive
advisorMAZZOLI, MARCO
ENG
2009-06-09
2009-06-26T08:20:49Z
The present work is made of three different essays, the first is an extension of a two region general equilibrium model (Benigno JIE 2004), with the intent of calculating optimal weights for EU inflation using micro data on the level of price rigidities, the second and the third have as main focus financial and currency country crises, with the task of selecting the most important variables in terms of crisis prediction by means of a descriptive statistics methodology called transvariation analysis. While the second essay focuses on univariate transvariation, the third extends the methodology to a multivariate framework. The last two essays are based on two different datasets. The first studies the most recent deep financial crises of the 1990s and the source is IMF, International Financial Statistics, the second uses a vast sample of currency crisis episodes taken from Frankel and Rose (1996) dataset made of annual data on more than one hundred developed countries from 1971 through 1992 and defining currency crash as a large change of nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. The source in this case is World Bank, World Development Indicators.
authorBRAGOLI, DANIELA
editorBAUSSOLA, MAURIZIO LUIGI
THREE ESSAYS ON OPEN ECONOMY MACROECONOMICS AND POLICY
2009-06-26T08:20:49Z
La seguente tesi e’ costituita da tre diversi elaborati, il primo e’ l’estensione di un modello di equilibrio generale a due regioni (Benigno JIE 2004) con l’intento di calcolare i pesi ottimali per l’inflazione dell’area euro utilizzando micro dati sull’eterogeneità delle rigidità dei prezzi in Europa.
Il secondo e il terzo elaborato si focalizzano invece sulle crisi d’insolvenza con l’obiettivo di selezionare le variabili che forniscono maggiori informazioni per la previsione della crisi. La metodologia utilizzata e’ l’analisi della transvariazione. Mentre il secondo ‘essay’ si concentra sulla versione univariata, il terzo estende la metodologia al caso multivariato. Il primo analizza le crisi d’insolvenza più severe degli anni ’90, la seconda utilizza invece gli episodi di crisi analizzati da Frankel e Rose (1996).
Bragoli, Daniela. "THREE ESSAYS ON OPEN ECONOMY MACROECONOMICS AND POLICY", Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, XX ciclo, a.a. 2007/08, Piacenza.
Adobe PDF
http://hdl.handle.net/10280/624
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oai:tesionline.unicatt.it:10280/6342013-06-04T09:57:38Zhdl_10280_36hdl_10280_68
DocTA - Doctoral Theses Archive
advisorAGLIARI, ANNA
ENG
2009-06-09T10:10:45Z
2009-07-14T10:10:45Z
The thesis is organized as follow: we start presenting, in the first part, the mathematical background we need to study our model, introducing at first the notion of dynamical system, more specifically in the discrete time, as our model required (Chapter 2).
Afterwards, for the economical background (Chapter 3-4), the concept of determinacy of the equilibrium is analyzed from the technical point of view for linear models, providing the analytical conditions that let us obtain a unique and determinate equilibrium.
Once explored the techniques, we give an exhaustive example that allows us to better understand from the mathematical point of view the concept of determinacy and how it is linked to the concept of stability. After that, a brief survey of the models that involved the study of determinacy is exposed, showing the several fields of application.
Then, since in our model of monetary policy we imply different interest-rate policy rules in order to study the stability of the macroeconomic system, we provide a short preamble of the rules for the operating target interest rate set by Central Bank.
In the second part the analytical framework is presented. The starting point is a model for price level determination in a cashless economy, where nominal rigidities are introduced, based on Woodford's work and we give the equilibrium relations of the model in the implicit form (Chapter 5).
Afterwards, we build the model in a particular case (Chapter 6), by specifying the functions involved in the model by using utility function of C.R.R.A. type and linear production function, compatible with the analytical characterization. In this way we get the components of a general economic equilibrium model, consistent with the optimizing behavior of households and firms. The results obtained after the specification of the functions are the same we can find in the analysis proposed by Walsh.
At this point, we obtain the log-linearized version of the model that is the starting point for the study of the stability of the system in the linear case.
This procedure let us find a two equations forward-looking and rational-expectations model for inflation and the output gap.
Then we briefly present the different policy regimes used in the analysis according to our framework, providing the interest-rate relations that close the model
Since our intention is to find a nonlinear version of the model, the step of using the log-linearization is essential in order to understand and to underline how this tool is useful not only for studying the equations around the steady-state but also to make these relations more treatable from a mathematical point of view: in fact it is important in order to figure out the obstacles we faced to build the nonlinear model and to find the solutions proposed in this work.
In the third part (Chapter 7), to reach our purpose to go beyond the log-linearized and simplified version of the model, we try, under some assumption compatible with the behavior of the agents, to provide nonlinear conditions for this model. This is meaningful in order to avoid loss of informations due to the limited analysis around a neighborhood of the steady-state.
Once illustrated the nonlinear model and the equilibrium relation, we study the determinacy of the equilibrium, using the techniques shown in the first part, under two different interest rate specifications that close the model. Chapter 8 concludes.
authorCORNARO, ALESSANDRA
editorBAUSSOLA, MAURIZIO LUIGI
Newkeynesian models for monetary policy analysis under stycky prices: a nonlinear approach
2009-07-14T10:10:45Z
La tesi è organizzata come segue: nella prima parte viene presentato il background matematico necessario per studiare il modello, introducendo la nozione di sistema dinamico (capitolo 2). Succesivamente viene introdotto il background economico, con il concetto di determinatezza sia dal punto di vista tecnico, con esempio applicativo, che dal punto di vista dei modelli presenti in letteratura in cui viene impiegato. Nella seconda parte viene presentato il framework analitico, basato sul modello di Woodford. In seguito, si passa studiare il modello con lo strumento della loglinearizzazione, fornendo le relazioni di equilibrio attorno allo stato stazionario. Poi si specifica il modello in un caso particolare e si prosegue per ottenere la versione non lineare del modello, introducendo nuove ipotesi compatibili con il framework analitico, in modo da poter studiare la determinatezza dell'equilibrio.
Cornaro, Alessandra. "Newkeynesian models for monetary policy analysis under stycky prices: a nonlinear approach", Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, XX ciclo, a.a. 2007/08, Piacenza, [http://hdl.handle.net/10280/634].
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http://hdl.handle.net/10280/634
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